Russian coal producers may struggle to redirect volumes to Asian markets if the EU proceeds with a threatened total import ban, analysts and industry participants said.
EU diplomats were this week discussing an embargo on purchases of Russian coal, part of an attempt to penalise Moscow for its invasion of Ukraine. Constraints on Russia’s railways, and the possibility that some Asian buyers will “self-sanction” and stop purchases following the EU’s lead, could shake up the sector, a big employer in Russia.
“We think the market is facing a complicated puzzle, and we expect some of Russia’s exports could be lost due to logistics challenges — possibly in the order of 30mn tonnes,” Morgan Stanley analyst Marius van Straaten said.
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