“The genius of Ukrainian military commanders,” Canadian analyst Michael MacKay tweeted early this week, “is to manoeuvre their forces to where the Russians aren’t, forcing Russians to retreat from where they are.” This is precisely what transpired on Russia’s domestic front too. While Russian troops avoided being encircled by retreating, Vladimir Putin found himself politically encircled in Moscow.

Just as the word “war” has finally made an appearance in government-controlled media (previously the invasion of Ukraine had been referred to as a “special military operation”), it is hardliners demanding total mobilisation who have become the Russian president’s biggest problem.

After failing to capture Kyiv and topple Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the Kremlin unveiled a strategy that can be summarised as follows: capture as much territory as possible with the available manpower; inflict as much damage as possible on Ukraine’s economy; and organise referendums on annexing occupied territories, thereby creating a sense of inevitability.