Very few of us remember globalisation in retreat: the last great wave of globalisation swelled in the late 19th century and broke spectacularly with the onset of the first world war. After a rash of protectionism, the great depression and the second world war, the process of expanding trade (and cross-border investment and the flow of ideas and of people) resumed and has continued ever since.
現(xiàn)在，一些經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家在懷疑，本輪全球化浪潮是否也即將破滅？問題主要不在于多哈回合貿(mào)易談判反復(fù)上演的鬧劇，也不在于美國的保護(hù)主義——盡管二者都毫無助益——而是油價(jià)對(duì)于全球船運(yùn)成本的影響。雖然油價(jià)在過去幾個(gè)月有所回落，但仍難以用低水平來形容。如果像預(yù)期的那樣，國際海事組織(International Maritime Organisation)禁止集裝箱船使用價(jià)格相對(duì)低廉價(jià)格相對(duì)低廉、不那么清潔的燃油，船運(yùn)成本也許會(huì)進(jìn)一步上升。
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