For the lucky Americans who have managed to hold on to their jobs, 2009 has so far been a great time to go shopping. Everything seems to be on sale. The lagged effect of last year's fall in gasoline prices added a spring to the step. Tax refunds are up considerably. Even those on social security, veterans and retired railway workers pocketed a handy $250 courtesy of the Barack Obama administration's stimulus package.

And what does the economy have to show for it? Including May's increase in real consumer spending of 0.2 per cent month-on-month, the average monthly change in spending since the much-heralded rebound in January remains negative.

Negative. That does not bode well for the second half of the year. Oil prices have doubled from their lows and over the rest of 2009 the relative benefits from tax and welfare drop away.