The Asian Development Bank is predicting a veritable V-shaped recovery. After halving from 6 per cent last year to an estimated 3 per cent in 2009, growth in east Asia, excluding Japan, is forecast to bounce back to 6 per cent in 2010.

That is nothing to sniff at considering the collapse of world trade on which the region depends. Citing a broad, if still hesitant, recovery in exports, stronger production and rising stock markets, the ADB's twice-yearly report concludes that the outlook has improved, even from a few months ago. That is welcome. Yet it is far too early to declare V for victory.

The reasons for caution are contained within the fine print of the report itself. Much of the recovery reflects the laws of physics. If you drop something on the floor it bounces. Last week, South Korea clocked its fastest growth in more than five years for the second quarter, but only relative to the dire quarters that had gone before. In Taiwan, a bellwether of Asia's complex supply chain, first-quarter GDP dropped by a breathtaking 10.2 per cent. It will take many quarters, if not years, of robust growth merely to make up lost ground.