When the economic tide began to turn in 2006, as US housing prices peaked, few expected more than a gentle slowdown. After a record-long worldwide expansion, policymakers were congratulating themselves on having tamed the business cycle. That “great moderation” now looks more like a grand illusion – or at least a more equivocal victory than once thought.
2006年，當經濟潮流隨著美國房價見頂而開始逆轉的時候，幾乎所有人都預期這充其量只是一次溫和的減速。世界經濟擴張的持續時間之久，已刷新紀錄，政策制定者們自我慶幸，認為他們已馴服了商業周期。這種“大緩和”的觀點，如今看上去更像一個大錯覺，或至少是比人們曾經認為的、更為難以捉摸的勝利。
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