Argentina's default in 2001 didn't come out of the blue. Nor did Lehman's collapse. Yet both caused shockwaves. Now it may be Dubai's turn. Investors fear that a debt standstill by Dubai World, the city kingdom's largest state-owned conglomerate, is a prelude to a forced restructuring of its estimated $60bn of liabilities. This has caused a repricing of risk both in and beyond the Gulf. Bank share prices took a pummelling yesterday. HSBC, down 5 per cent, was among the worst hit, given its estimated $16bn exposure to the United Arab Emirates. The dollar and bunds rose.
阿根廷2001年的違約并非毫無前兆。雷曼(Lehman)破產也是如此。但兩者都對市場產生了沖擊。現在或許輪到迪拜了。投資者擔心，迪拜最大國有集團迪拜世界(Dubai World)暫停償債，是其大約600億美元債務被迫重組的序曲。人們不得不對海灣區內外的國家的風險進行重新定價。銀行股股價昨日大幅下挫。鑒于在阿聯酋大約160億美元的風險敞口，匯豐(HSBC)成為受沖擊最為嚴重的一家銀行，股價下跌5%。美元和德國國債則出現上漲。