Beware fashions in geopolitics. They change as often as the hemlines on Paris catwalks.

The fast-shifting distribution of power in the world is feeding a burgeoning community of geopolitical seers. Change sharpens our appetite for certainty about the future. By and large, though, the myriad maps of a new global order are turning out to be as ephemeral as the couturiers’ spring collections.

Not so long ago, the competing ambitions of autocracies and democracies were set to shape the future. China and Russia would square up against the west. Washington rang with calls from pundits and policymakers for a global league of liberal democracies. As I recall, France’s Jacques Chirac and Germany’s Gerhard Schr?der were mustard keen to side with the autocrats.