Three months on, the consequences of the Deepwater Horizon disaster are becoming clearer. BP has a new leader – a quiet American who, as head of TNK-BP, a joint venture in Russia, has already held one of the world's toughest jobs. The company is emerging from weeks of crisis conscious that much still needs to be done to clean up the gulf, and its damaged reputation. But the value of its assets, likely to be confirmed by yesterday's announcement of $30bn (€23bn, ￡19bn) of planned disposals, suggests a company worth more than its depressed share price implies.

For the industry the immediate impact will be more regulation, and a requirement for detailed (and perhaps pre-funded) plans to deal with accidents. Costs will rise, but more importantly new deepwater developments – seen as the salvation of international companies squeezed between declining old resources in the North Sea and elsewhere, and inaccessible new resources in much of the Middle East, Russia and Venezuela – will be constrained. Market power will shift back to the Opec states, the only available and relatively low cost source of new oil to meet growing global demand.

The more profound conclusion from the past few months, however, is that the cool long-term rationalism and global mindset of oil company boardrooms is inadequate in the face of the rough and tumble of short-term local politics. Companies such as BP wanted to see the world as a single market, but in reality national interests still predominate. We are entering a new world in which success will go to those who move beyond old visions of monolithic, centralised global enterprises towards new approaches built on partnerships and joint ventures attuned to local needs.