Hillary Clinton's future has been a subject of renewed interest in Washington in the past week or two. Some are advising Barack Obama to ditch Joe Biden as vice-president and put the secretary of state on the ticket for the presidential election in 2012. Commentators are enchanted. Issues of substance and tactics are being pored over delightedly.

What does the surfacing of the idea tell us? First, that it is August. Far be it from me to flout the spirit of the season by having nothing to say on the subject.

Second, the tentative appearance of a draft Hillary movement tells us that Mr Obama is in trouble. (That was no secret, either.) Views about just how much trouble will harden after November's midterm elections. If the Democrats get thrashed, no rescue strategy for 2012 will be considered outlandish.