The European centre-left tipped up in Oslo the other day to chart the future of progressive governance. The gathering was a well-attended affair. These are politicians with time on their hands. Power in Europe belongs to the centre-right.

If there was a shard of light penetrating the air of gloom in the Norwegian capital, it came from France. Progressives might be in trouble almost everywhere, but next year’s French presidential election could see the left reclaim power in one of Europe’s big three nations.

Dominique Strauss-Kahn, managing director of the International Monetary Fund and frontrunner for the Socialist party’s candidature, was streets ahead of Nicolas Sarkozy in the polls. Here was a politician who could lend precious economic credibility to the centre-left cause across Europe.