It is election time in China again. Or at least it is in Taiwan, the self-governing island that Beijing claims as an inalienable part of the People’s Republic. Though Taiwan’s presidential poll is taking place in a small, somewhat forgotten, island of 23m people, the result is of intense concern to the world’s two most important powers, the US and China. For both, who becomes president of Taiwan is probably more important than who is president of France.

In January, Ma Ying-jeou, the incumbent, will seek re-election after four years in office. The Kuomintang leader will stand partly on his record of soothing dangerously hot tempers across the Taiwan Strait, and forging closer economic ties and transport links with mainland China.

Mr Ma’s actions have won praise in Washington, which is grateful to him for cooling one of the world’s hottest flashpoints. Under the 1979 Taiwan Relations Act, Washington is legally committed to help Taiwan defend itself. That leaves open the ghastly possibility, at least in theory, of the US fighting on Taiwan’s side should war broke out with China.