Few economists are willing to bet heavily against another global recession in 2012. By common consent, the economic outlook is much darker today than it appeared in early autumn.

The eurozone crisis has worsened, with contagion spreading through Italy and Spain and lapping at the door of France. Recoveries remain feeble in other advanced economies. And emerging markets are beginning to feel the pressure.

Policymakers are worried. Christine Lagarde, managing director of the International Monetary Fund repeatedly warned in September that the world economy had entered a “dangerous phase”. By December, she said those threats were materialising. “The global economic outlook will be lower, and in certain parts much lower than what we had initially envisaged,” Ms Lagarde told journalists this month in Brazil.