The Office for Budgetary Responsibility is a welcome innovation within the UK policymaking framework. Too often governments have manipulated the numbers. The OBR should end such finagling. More important, it should end the fear of such finagling. Greater confidence in the probity of official forecasts is a public good. Yet it is crucial to distinguish probity from correctness. The OBR is honest and competent. How could it be otherwise with my former colleague Robert Chote at its head? But it might still be wrong. Economists just do not know very much.
在英國(guó)的政策制定框架內(nèi)，預(yù)算責(zé)任辦公室(Office of Budget Responsibility，簡(jiǎn)稱OBR)是一個(gè)受歡迎的創(chuàng)新。在太多情況下，政府操縱了數(shù)據(jù)。OBR應(yīng)該結(jié)束這種欺騙性的做法。更重要的是，它應(yīng)該終結(jié)人們對(duì)這種欺騙的擔(dān)憂。人們對(duì)官方預(yù)測(cè)誠(chéng)信度的信心增強(qiáng)，符合公眾的利益。但有一點(diǎn)至關(guān)重要：誠(chéng)信不等于正確。OBR是誠(chéng)實(shí)且富有能力的。有我以前的同事羅伯特?喬特(Robert Chote)的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)，它怎么可能不這樣呢？但它仍然有可能出錯(cuò)。經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家就是所知甚少。