Climate change or a passing storm? Some investment bankers worry that they are suffering a structural change in their world. Others still believe it is just the cycle. The risk, following strong third-quarter fixed income trading at US investment banks, is that those in the latter camp go easy on cost cutting and chase earnings instead. Citicorp’s fixed income, currencies and commodities revenue was up almost two-thirds year on year; trading at JPMorganand Morgan Stanleywas up one-third. Investors can expect the same as Europe’s investment banks start reporting this week. But it would be wrong to think that things are looking better: trading still relies on highly artificial and temporary stimulus measures.
這究竟是氣候發生了變化，還是只是一場過境的風暴？一些投資銀行家擔心，他們的行業正在經歷一場結構性轉變。另一些投資銀行家則仍認為，投行業只是受到了周期性因素的影響。第三季度，美國投行固定收益類資產交易表現強勁，但相應的風險在于，上述后一類投資銀行家會放松成本削減力度并轉而追逐利潤。花旗集團(Citicorp)固定收益、外匯及大宗商品(FICC)收入同比增長近三分之二；摩根大通(JPMorgan)和摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)增長三分之一。投資者可以想見，當歐洲投行本周開始公布季報時，它們的表現將與美國同行類似。但如果就此認為行業整體形勢正在好轉，那就錯了：交易業務仍仰仗高度人為和短期性的刺激措施。