Chinese factory output expanded at its fastest pace in almost a year in March, but the rise was slower than most economists had predicted, suggesting that China’s economy may not rebound as quickly as many had hoped.

China’s official Purchasing Managers’ Index, released on Monday, rose to 50.9 in March from 50.1 in February, the biggest expansion since April last year. A competing index published by HSBC rose to 51.6 from 50.4 in February. A reading above 50 indicates expansion, while a reading below 50 indicates contraction.

The period after the Chinese lunar new year holiday, when the whole country shuts down for the spring festival, is usually marked by a surge in factory orders and activity. The holiday was in February this year, but the expected rebound in March appears to be more muted than in the past.