The Middle East is burning, and the US is getting out. There is an element of exaggeration in this observation, but only an element. The dynamics of rising conflict and US disengagement have become mutually reinforcing. The higher the fires burn, the more Washington seems intent on turning away.

A former European leader with strong connections in the Arab world talks of a regional “mutiny” against the US in particular and the west in general. Saudi Arabia’s decision to snub the UN Security Council – directed more at the US than at the international community – was a straw in the wind. Another has been the reluctance of Arab states to bankroll the Palestinians as the US seeks to broker a peace deal with Israel. Disenchantment has spread to Turkey. Abdullah Gul, its president, said the other day that the absence of US resolve had allowed Syria to become a haven for jihadis – an Afghanistan on the Mediterranean.

This part of the world is the home of wild conspiracy theories. One of the Gulf’s English-language newspapers recently reported an alleged American-Iranian plot to weaken Arab states by fanning the flames of Sunni-Shia sectarianism. Beyond fanciful? Of course. But not, I learnt during a few days in Bahrain, beyond the suspicions of many Sunni Arabs. Another widely circulated rumour, one top official told me, had posited a conspiracy between Israel and Iran. Many had believed it.