Is China different? Or must its borrowing binge, like most others, end in tears? This is now a hotly debated topic. On one side are those who predict a Chinese “Minsky moment” – a point in the credit cycle at which, as Hyman Minsky foretold, panic grips the financial system. On the other side are those who insist that China’s debt mountain poses no threat to the planned growth of the economy: the authorities say it will be above 7 per cent and above 7 per cent it will be. Which side is right? “Neither” is my answer. China will not have a financial meltdown. But the end of its credit addiction will result in lower growth, properly measured.
中國(guó)有什么不一樣嗎？還是中國(guó)的借款熱潮必然會(huì)像其他多數(shù)國(guó)家那樣以眼淚收?qǐng)觯窟@是現(xiàn)在人們展開(kāi)激烈辯論的一個(gè)話題。一方預(yù)測(cè)中國(guó)將出現(xiàn)“明斯基時(shí)刻”(Minsky moment)，根據(jù)美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家海曼?明斯基(Hyman Minsky)的預(yù)言，這是信貸周期中恐慌占據(jù)金融體系的時(shí)刻。另一方則堅(jiān)持表示，中國(guó)的巨額債務(wù)不會(huì)對(duì)計(jì)劃中的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)構(gòu)成任何威脅：中國(guó)政府表示中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增速將超過(guò)7%，那就一定會(huì)超過(guò)7%。哪一方說(shuō)的對(duì)？我的答案是“都不對(duì)”。中國(guó)不會(huì)出現(xiàn)金融危機(jī)。但“信貸癮”的戒除將使增速放緩，節(jié)奏更穩(wěn)。