Is the three-and-a-half decade long bull market in the highest-rated government debt over? If so, would that be a good thing or a bad one? The answer to the first question is that it seems quite likely that the yield of 0.08 per cent (8 basis points) recorded on the 10-year Bund in April was a low point. The answer to the second question is that it would be a good thing: it would suggest confidence that the threats of deflation and eurozone disintegration are fading. At the same time, this bounce does not mean that a rapid rise in yields to what used to be normal levels is on the way. We should want to see yields rise, but modestly. This is also what we should expect.
評級最高的政府債券持續35年之久的牛市結束了嗎？如果結束了，那是好事還是壞事？第一個問題的答案是，德國10年期國債在今年4月觸及的0.08%收益率（8個基點）很有可能是最低點。第二個問題的答案是，這是件好事：它將表明人們相信通縮和歐元區解體的威脅正在消退。與此同時，這種飆升并不意味著，收益率將會迅速上升至以往的正常水平。我們應該希望看到收益率上升，但要是溫和的上升。這也是我們可以期待的。