Bets on when the Federal Reserve will raise US interest rates are starting to look like the playground game of pulling petals off a daisy: this year, next year, sometime, never.
Plunging share prices are widely seen as a reason for the Fed to delay again in September, with futures pricing in a higher chance of the Fed keeping rates on hold all year. From thinking a rise was almost certain, futures now suggest only a one-in-three chance of a rise next month.
Bill Dudley, head of the powerful New York Fed, told investors what they wanted to hear yesterday when he said the case for a rate rise is less compelling than it was — although he also said it was important not to be too sensitive to short-term market moves.
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