For Japanese officials, the recent Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Papua New Guinea was a slightly uncomfortable trip down memory lane. The island of New Guinea was the scene of some of the most brutal fighting in the second world war and more than 100,000 Japanese troops died there, in a struggle with the Americans and Australians.

The Japanese delegation returned to Tokyo with the strong feeling that this obscure corner of the world is once again becoming the scene for a struggle between great powers. The Apec summit coincided with an announcement that Australia and the US are planning jointly to develop a naval base at Manus in Papua New Guinea — part of a clear effort to push back against growing Chinese influence in the South Pacific. The Chinese themselves are heavy investors in the region and have been rumoured to be seeking a military base.

The rising tensions between the US and China remind some Japanese strategists of the rivalry between America and Japan in the 1930s. One senior Japanese official told me that: “The Chinese don’t yet understand that when the Americans feel their leadership is threatened, they will react brutally.” Yet the same official noted that China is in a stronger position to challenge the US than Japan was in the 1930s.