The confrontation between the US and Iran risks spinning out of control. If the weekend attacks on Saudi Arabian oil facilities were launched by Iranian proxies, they will mark a reckless escalation both of Tehran’s resistance to US pressure and of its struggle for supremacy with its biggest regional rival. The incident has laid bare, too, the vulnerability of the Saudi oil industry despite its vast military spending — and the influence the kingdom still exerts on global crude prices despite the US shale boom. The pressure on President Donald Trump to retaliate may be irresistible. A wiser, though difficult, course would be to seek ways to de-escalate the situation.
美國與伊朗之間的對抗眼下有失控的風險。如果上周末針對沙特阿拉伯石油設施的襲擊是由伊朗的代理人發動的，這將標志著伊朗對美方施壓的反抗以及它與該地區最大競爭對手爭奪霸權的斗爭都出現不計后果的升級。該事件也暴露出沙特石油行業的脆弱性（盡管沙特軍事開支巨大），以及沙特對全球原油價格依然擁有的影響力（盡管有美國的頁巖熱潮）。美國總統唐納德?特朗普(Donald Trump)可能面臨著巨大的壓力要進行報復。困難、但更明智的做法將是設法緩和眼下的緊張事態。