If the global economic slowdown and uncertainty about the future of US-China trade send the US into recession, it could spur a bull run in cryptocurrencies. But while this shift may provide investors with a temporary safe haven, it is likely to lead many to financial ruin.

Back in the early days of bitcoin, a prophecy took hold that a major crypto-surge would accompany the next stock market bust. Far from being an irrelevant artefact, this prediction is tied to other pieces of crypto-folklore (myths that Ramesh Srinivasan explores in Beyond the Valley ) that many cryptocurrency believers consider fundamental truths. Most notably, it springs directly from the belief that cryptocurrencies are a solid long-term investment, sure to appreciate over time come hell or high water. Though crypto-enthusiasts disagree about which is the “one true coin”, their shared belief that cryptocurrencies will experience long-term gains helps to unite them (and prop up prices).

What is important about these folk tales is not their accuracy, but that a lot of people believe in them. If someone thinks cryptocurrency prices will rise when markets tank, then the rational thing to do at the first sign of a recession is to load up on their preferred digital coin. When enough people act on this impulse, they can move prices up. Cryptocurrency markets are still relatively small compared to equity markets and, therefore, respond to smaller trading events. This means that a handful of independent actors buying or selling the same coin at around the same time can noticeably affect prices.