In its latest World Economic Outlook, the IMF calls what is now happening, the “Great Lockdown”. I prefer the “Great Shutdown”: this phrase captures the reality that the global economy would be collapsing even if policymakers were not imposing lockdowns and might stay in collapse after lockdowns end. Yet, whatever we call it, this is clear: it is much the biggest crisis the world has confronted since the second world war and the biggest economic disaster since the Depression of the 1930s. The world has come into this moment with divisions among its great powers and incompetence at the highest levels of government of terrifying proportions. We will pass through this, but into what?
在最新的《世界經(jīng)濟(jì)展望》(World Economic Outlook)中，國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)將現(xiàn)在發(fā)生的事情稱為“大封鎖”(Great Lockdown)。我更喜歡“大關(guān)閉”(Great Shutdown)一詞：它突顯出這樣一個(gè)現(xiàn)實(shí)，即哪怕政策制定者沒有實(shí)施封鎖，全球經(jīng)濟(jì)同樣會(huì)崩潰，而且在封鎖結(jié)束后可能還會(huì)繼續(xù)崩潰。然而，不管我們?cè)趺捶Q呼它，有一點(diǎn)很清楚：這是二戰(zhàn)以來世界面臨的最大危機(jī)，也是20世紀(jì)30年代大蕭條以來最大的經(jīng)濟(jì)災(zāi)難。這一時(shí)刻到來的時(shí)候，世界各大國間正處于分歧之中，政府最高層的無能到了極為可怕的地步。眼下這一切終會(huì)過去，但之后的世界會(huì)是什么樣子？