Thirty years after the fall of the Soviet Union, the protests that have shaken Kazakhstan may mark the end of Nursultan Nazarbayev’s long grip on power — but do not suggest the oil-rich central Asian country will make a smooth transition from autocratic rule.

Nazarbayev had ruled the country for most of Kazakhstan’s post-Soviet history, stepping down in 2019 to hand his official role as president to a designated successor, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev. But Nazarbayev hung on to his role as chair of the national security council, prolonging his grip on the closely controlled state.

In the wake of the spiralling protests this week, however, Tokayev — once seen as nothing but an administrative appointee — has publicly assumed control of the security forces from the man who put him in the presidency. Nazarbayev — the 81-year-old so-called “l(fā)eader of the nation”, and the man for whom the capital city is now named — has been sidelined, with rumours even suggesting he may have left Kazakhstan.