It seems that I was a few months too early when, last October, I thought that by Chinese new year “supply chains” could be retired as a blanket excuse for why everything is late and expensive. But here we are, a couple of weeks away from the holiday, and there are still ships waiting off the coast and annoying shortages persist.

I was not entirely wrong at the time. For about two weeks in October, the prices and availability of both container ships and the “dry bulk” carriers that shuttle commodities such as iron ore and coal were rolling over. It looked as though the world could indeed get back to normal by mid-February.

And, indeed, The Baltic Dry index of bulk cargo shipping prices has continued to plunge, from a high over 5,000 at the beginning of October to a bit over 1,500 today. This is confirmed by weak iron and metallurgical coal prices and declining shipments.