Will there be a war in Ukraine? The one man who might know for sure is Vladimir Putin. The Russian president has ordered the build-up of troops on the borders of Ukraine. The ultimate decision about whether to invade will be his alone.
But how will Putin decide? That depends on which version of the Russian leader you believe in: Putin the Rational or Vlad the Mad.
Most western policymakers believe in Putin the Rational. They argue that, after more than 20 years in power, the Russian leader is a known quantity. He is ruthless and amoral. But he is also shrewd and calculating. He takes risks, but he is not crazy.
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