The World Economic Forum in Davos has been the meeting place and cheerleader for global capitalism. But, some would argue, this cause is dead. Russian oligarchs are absent. Although some Chinese business leaders are there, their wings are clipped at home and abroad. The global financial crisis, Covid, resurgent nationalism, deteriorating relations between the US and China, and war in Ukraine have transformed the global business environment for the worse.

Ultimately, capitalism is global, because opportunities are global. Beyond national borders lie markets to serve and resources to exploit. Today’s multinational companies and cross-border flows of goods, services, knowledge, finance, people, data and ideas are products of these opportunities. Yet, whether they are exploited, and by whom, is also determined by the risks and the constraints.

What has changed are perceptions of risk. Not so long ago, both businesses and politicians saw only the upside. Now they also see the downside. Business sees risk in extended supply chains and vulnerability to disruption. Politicians see the risks of extended supply chains, too. Yet they also see threats from hostile powers, loss of their countries’ technological superiority and threats to the livelihoods of important domestic constituencies.