The writer is a former senior colonel in the People’s Liberation Army and senior fellow at the Center for International Security and Strategy at Tsinghua University

Will the war in Ukraine spill over into a third world war? The short answer is: not unless China lends military support to Russia. Over the past year, Beijing — despite not being involved in this faraway conflict — was nevertheless asked which side it would take, whether it would become a mediator between Russia and the west, and whether it might launch an attack on Taiwan.

This is the price China pays for being a global power. Caught between Russia, its strategic partner, and Ukraine, which counts China as its largest trading partner, Beijing is treading a tightrope. While stressing the importance of sovereignty, China has gently criticised Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. But it has also emphasised that regional security cannot be strengthened by expanding a military bloc, an explicit rebuke to Nato and its most powerful member, the US.