The writer is an FT contributing editor
The belief that stocks outperform bonds over the long run sits behind almost every strategic asset allocation process and is backed by centuries of empirical data.
The longest series of American financial asset returns in general circulation stretches back to 1871. In this account, stocks’ median outperformance of bonds over a 10-year holding period has been 2.3 per cent a year, rising to 4 per cent per annum over 50-year holding periods. The chance of underperformance over relatively long periods has been low. And importantly, incidence of stocks being trumped by bonds become vanishingly rare as your holding period lengthens.
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