The writer is the director of the Eurasia Nonproliferation Program at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies

While on the advance in Ukraine, Russia has recently suffered tactical setbacks in the Middle East. The fall of Aleppo to Syrian rebels is merely the latest in a string of developments — set in motion by the events of October 7 last year — to cause problems for the Kremlin. 

Amid the ongoing war in Gaza, Israel has taken on Russia’s partner Iran and its associates in the “axis of resistance” in a protracted tit-for-tat. In the spring, intensified Israeli operations in Syria eliminated scores of Iran-affiliated fighters and weapons. Israel upped the ante in September, unleashing a cyber-kinetic operation against Hizbollah which culminated in the killing of its leadership. In late October, it bombed Iran’s ballistic missile programme and other defence-industrial sites.