Worrying is for wimps. If we have learnt nothing else in 2025, it’s that the global economy, the companies inside it and the markets that reflect them are much more resilient than many of us predicted.

Tariffs? Whatever. Geopolitical alliances? Institutional integrity? Sure, sounds important. Despite all the challenges, and despite markets briefly falling off a cliff after Donald Trump’s tariff announcement in April, stocks have mostly sailed higher, bonds are pretty well behaved and private assets have conspicuously not blown up. The consensus now is that the good vibes will last, and markets will blast through 2026 in rude health.

Nevertheless, fund managers are paid to consider risks. Some are impossible to predict or manage — think meteor strike, zombie apocalypse and the like. But some are more quantifiable.