As an investor who has seen more than a few market cycles, I have learnt to approach macro forecasts with scepticism. Such predictions normally turn out to be either unhelpful consensus expectations or non-consensus forecasts that are rarely right. But as I explain in my latest memo to investors, they should not be dismissed entirely, particularly now.

Why? To invert what Warren Buffett once told me, the macro future may not be knowable, but it certainly is important. Since the tech bubble burst in 2000, the market has appeared to think less about events surrounding individual companies and stocks and more about the economy, monetary and fiscal policy, and world events. That has been even more true since the financial crisis in 2008.

Macro considerations are certainly in the ascendancy, centring on the subject of inflation. Over the past 16 months, the US Federal Reserve, Treasury and Congress have used a firehose of money to support, subsidise and stimulate workers, businesses, the overall economy, capital markets and securities markets. (In fact, I think of 2020 as the year the word “trillions” came into everyday use.) One of the results has been fear of rising inflation.