Older workers and Londoners are at highest risk of long-term joblessness as the UK’s furlough scheme closes on Thursday, with economists predicting a modest rise in unemployment because workers who are made redundant will not necessarily be able to fill vacancies in areas where there are big shortages.

The job retention scheme supported about 9m workers at the peak of the crisis, an unprecedented state intervention that prevented mass job losses and supported household spending — at a cost of almost ￡70bn. As a result, unemployment stood at just 4.6 per cent on the latest official count.

But 1.6m people were still partly or fully furloughed at the end of July, with surveys suggesting that about 1m — concentrated in industries such as aviation, tourism and the cultural sector where activity has not fully recovered — could still be on the scheme as it closed.