Global wheat production is likely to fall for the first time in four years, according to a closely watched US government forecast of the upcoming crop season, confirming fears of a further tightening of supply and rising food inflation.

Chicago wheat futures for September delivery jumped almost 6 per cent to $11.82 a bushel after the US Department of Agriculture issued its first world estimates for the 2022-23 crop season.

Grain traders, food companies and governments have been keeping a close eye on supplies since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine disrupted farming in the top-five wheat-exporting nation. The USDA on Thursday predicted Ukraine’s wheat production would fall by a larger than expected 35 per cent from the year before, to 21.5mn tonnes.