Just as markets reached lunatic levels of exuberance on the way up, there is no reason to expect sanity on the way back down. The baying mob is now convinced that standalone investment banks are history. Equity markets, it seems, will accept nothing less. Bear Stearns, Lehman Brothers and Merrill Lynch are already gone. Now, incredibly, two of the bluest-chip names on Wall Street, Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs, are fighting for survival. Shares in the former have more than halved this week alone, forcing it into talks with Wachovia about a merger and with China Investment Corp about increasing its 9.9 per cent stake.
所有的金融機構都在承受打擊，但是這兩家可謂最高品質的投行，是否將不可避免的消失？忘記那些關于經紀商業務模式可行性的歇斯底里的主張吧。只要市場能恢復少許平靜，摩根士丹利和高盛就應該能夠生存下去。然而，上周所認為的資金和資本狀況絕對充足，可能在一小時之內發生改變。這本身就可成為致命的自我實現過程。