Senior officials at the Treasury and Federal Reserve are confident that the rescue plan for US banks will succeed in preventing a financial system meltdown and ensure there will not be a repeat of the Great Depression. But they know that a sharp economic downturn is already baked in the cake. They do not, however, know how deep or protracted it will be.
The focus of concern is shifting from the markets – although these remain dangerously stressed – to the wider economy, where the consumer finally appears to be cracking.
The Fed and Treasury were expecting the economy to weaken but not as rapidly as it has, with collapsing consumer confidence, falling home starts, slumping retail sales and falling industrial production.
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