In a more recent note, Professor Roubini predicts a combination of stagnation and deflation*. In doing so he points, with some glee, to the most recent analysis of the global outlook from JPMorgan Chase, once among the most bullish of analysts. Now, under the rubric “A bad week in hell”, JPMorgan states that: “Once again, we have taken an axe to near-term growth forecasts for the developed world and will likely follow up with additional downward revisions for emerging economies in the coming weeks. Already, our forecasts suggest that global gross domestic product will contract at a near 1 per cent annual rate” in the fourth quarter of 2008 and the first quarter of 2009.
魯比尼教授在最近發表的一篇文章中，預測全球將陷入經濟停滯和通貨緊縮的境地*。他還帶著些許歡喜之情列舉出摩根大通(JPMorgan Chase)對全球經濟前景的最新分析。在鮮紅色的標題“災難性的一周”之下，一度身居最樂觀分析機構之列的摩根大通表示：“我們再次大幅下調對發達國家短期經濟增長的預測，而且未來幾周很可能跟進，再度下修新興經濟體預測。我們的預測已經指出，折合成年率后，2008年第四季度和2009年第一季度全球國內生產總值(GDP)將縮減近1%。”