With Japan as an example, nobody should need reminding that deflation is a uniquely dangerous prospect – but here is a refresher. Persistently falling prices increase the inflation-adjusted burden of debt. Insupportable debts are the core of the US economy's difficulties. If that burden grows even heavier because of falling prices, the contractionary forces will strengthen. The economy will slow further, the deflationary pressure will increase again, debts will become more burdensome, and so on. Since interest rates cannot fall to less than zero, monetary policy cannot follow inflation all the way down. This makes the deflationary circle difficult to break. Nothing is more important than preventing the economy from toppling into it.
有日本作為先例，無需提醒，人們都應(yīng)清楚，通貨緊縮是一種相當(dāng)危險的風(fēng)險——但這里再回顧一下。價格持續(xù)下降增加了通脹調(diào)整后的債務(wù)負(fù)擔(dān)。無法承受的債務(wù)是美國經(jīng)濟(jì)的核心難題。如果由于價格不斷下跌而導(dǎo)致該負(fù)擔(dān)愈發(fā)加重，推動經(jīng)濟(jì)縮減的力量將會增強(qiáng)。美國經(jīng)濟(jì)將進(jìn)一步放緩，通貨緊縮壓力會進(jìn)一步加大，債務(wù)將變得更為繁重，如此周而復(fù)始。既然利率不能降至負(fù)值，貨幣政策就無法跟隨通脹的下降而一直減息下去。這使得通貨緊縮循環(huán)難以打破。沒什么事情比避免經(jīng)濟(jì)落入這一循環(huán)更重要的了。