The probability of a default is low but clearly rising. The decision by Standard & Poor's, the ratings agency, to downgrade Greek sovereign debt and to put Spanish and Irish debt on watch seriously rattled investors last week, for good reason. If the financial crisis has taught us one thing, it is to take perceived tail-risks more seriously.
違約的可能性很低，但這種可能性顯然在增大。上周，標準普爾(Standard & Poor)作出決定，降低了希臘主權債務的信用評級，并將西班牙和愛爾蘭國債評級列入負面觀察名單，令投資者一片慌亂。要說我們從金融危機中吸取了什么教訓的話，那就是更慎重地對待察覺到的尾部風險。
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