Turn on the television news next Thursday and on display will be the sort of images from China that used to capture the imagination in the days of the Soviet Union. Dozens of tanks will roll down Beijing's main avenue and past Tiananmen Square, followed by immaculate ranks of goose-stepping soldiers. New military hardware will be proudly paraded, from mobile missile launchers that can reach Washington to J-10 fighter jets produced at a Chinese plant.

The occasion will be the 60th anniversary of the founding of the People's Republic of China, an event allowing the country's leaders to show off their rapidly advancing military prowess at a time when its economy is leading others out of recession. If the Beijing Olympics last year were a chance to demonstrate how successful China has become, the October 1 parade will provide enduring images of its growing power.

Yet the bigger question raised by these celebrations is: what does Beijing really think of the US? Or, more specifically, does it now believe America – embroiled in two wars and with its economy wilting after last year's financial crisis – is facing inevitable decline? If the answer is yes, it will have big implications for some of the most important global issues in President Barack Obama's in-tray, from the future role of the dollar to Iran.