Letters of the alphabet may no longer be sufficient to describe the US economy's trajectory. With the almost certain return of growth in the previous quarter, it is not an “L” but not yet robust enough to be a “V”. The likelihood of a “W” also seems far-fetched without the sort of liquidity crisis seen last autumn. If sobering testimony by White House economic adviser Christina Romer is to be believed, it may resemble a square root symbol – flatlining at a low base. That is because the impact of fiscal stimulus may already have peaked, even with less than half the money spent.
英文字母可能已不再足以描述美國經濟的發展軌跡。鑒于上一季度經濟恢復增長幾乎已成定局，美國經濟呈現的并不是“L”型復蘇，但也沒有強勁到足以實現“V”型復蘇。由于我們并未看到去年秋季出現的那種流動性危機，“W”型復蘇的說法似乎也有些牽強。如果白宮經濟顧問克里斯蒂娜?羅默(Christina Romer)提供的催人警醒的證據能令人信服，那么復蘇軌跡可能會像一個平方根符號：在一個很低的基礎上保持水平。其原因在于，財政刺激措施的影響可能已經到頂了，盡管只花了不到一半的錢。