On New Year's Eve 2007, the Financial Times, in its customary look at the year ahead, declared that “the US will skate along the brink of recession in early 2008, but should avoid tipping over the brink”. In retrospect, we can ruefully enjoy that forecast not because it proved to be wrong – although it was – but because it was wrong even as it was published. The recession actually began in December 2007, just as the FT was announcing that it wouldn't begin at all. To modify the old quip, “prediction is very difficult, even when it's not about the future”.
2007年新年前夜，英國(guó)《金融時(shí)報(bào)》在其例行年度展望中表示，“2008年初，美國(guó)將瀕臨衰退邊緣，但應(yīng)該不會(huì)墜下懸崖”。現(xiàn)在回過頭看，我們可能對(duì)這種預(yù)測(cè)感到遺憾，不是因?yàn)槭聦?shí)證明它是錯(cuò)誤的——盡管它的確是錯(cuò)誤的——而是因?yàn)樗诎l(fā)表之際就是錯(cuò)誤的。衰退實(shí)際上開始于2007年12月，而當(dāng)時(shí)英國(guó)《金融時(shí)報(bào)》宣稱危機(jī)根本不會(huì)發(fā)生。對(duì)老話改造一番就是：“預(yù)測(cè)是非常困難的，即便不是預(yù)測(cè)未來?！?/p>