In June, rates in the Chinese interbank market peaked at more than 13 per cent. The bond market suddenly closed to new issuances, while the ATMs of one of the big four banks ceased paying out cash – although this was reportedly due to a software upgrade rather than insufficient available funds. China’s financial drama, we are told, marked a deliberate attempt by the authorities to restrict excessive credit growth and to establish sound banking practices. Once Beijing has gotten its way, the liquidity spigots will reopen and economic growth will resume. Yet credit crunches often mark the turning point in the financial cycle.
今年6月，中國銀行間市場利率最高超過了13%。債券市場上新債發(fā)行遭冷遇，而中國四大國有銀行之一的ATM機(jī)也突然取不出現(xiàn)鈔——雖然據(jù)報道稱這是由于軟件升級而非可用資金不足。我們被告知，中國金融市場中出現(xiàn)的戲劇性局面，標(biāo)志著官方有意嘗試限制信貸過度增長以及規(guī)范銀行操作。一旦北京方面實(shí)現(xiàn)了預(yù)定目標(biāo)，流動性龍頭就會再次開啟，經(jīng)濟(jì)增長勢頭就將恢復(fù)。但通常而言，信貸緊縮標(biāo)志著金融周期的轉(zhuǎn)折點(diǎn)。