The global economy is getting back to normal. That does not mean a rapid return to full employment nor to a low-risk world for investors. It means that the underlying realities of globalisation are becoming clearer: ours is a multipolar world, where the technological convergence between rich nations and capable poor ones is rapid. Middle classes are expanding quickly in emerging markets – a group that politicians focus on everywhere, while ignoring recurrent protests from others, particularly low-skilled labour. The world has and will have high real economic volatility despite relative price stability. This state of affairs is, in fact, a return to the Old Normal of the late 19th century. It is a world that we can understand, even if we do not like it.
全球經(jīng)濟正在恢復常態(tài)。這并不意味著快速恢復充分就業(yè)狀態(tài)，或重返一個對投資者而言低風險的世界；而是意味著，全球化的基本現(xiàn)實正變得越來越明晰：我們正處于一個多極世界，富裕國家與有能力的窮國之間的技術融合十分快速。新興市場的中產(chǎn)階級正在快速壯大，每個國家的政客都對這個階層極為關注，同時忽視其他階層（尤其是低技能的勞動者階層）此起彼伏的抗議。盡管物價相對穩(wěn)定，但全球正在——并將繼續(xù)——經(jīng)歷高度的實體經(jīng)濟波動。實際上，這種狀態(tài)是對19世紀末“舊常態(tài)”(Old Normal)的回歸。這是一個我們能夠理解的世界，即使我們不喜歡它。