From a distance, it may appear that the French mainstream right is on the road to political and organisational unity with Nicolas Sarkozy’s successful return to the helm of the opposition UMP. With the left in disarray and the far right National Front not – or not yet – credible enough to win, though more than strong enough to deliver a shock to the political system, the way is open for Mr Sarkozy’s comeback at the next presidential elections, non? Are we about to witness in 2017 the French equivalent of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s return to power in Japan, with a rebranding so powerful that his name became identified with a novel economic policy?

It could happen but probably will not. Mr Sarkozy’s formidable drive remains intact and his competitors will have to contend with his ability to thrive under pressure, as he demonstrated at the peak of the global financial crisis or during Russia’s war in Georgia in 2008. Furthermore, he now has control of the UMP party machine, a major, possibly indispensable, asset.

However, powerful factors, which were not at play when he first ran for and won the presidency in 2007, will get into his way. He faces a host of legal challenges. One of the most recent, the so-called Bygmalion case – after the name of an events-organising company alleged to have served as a conduit for the funding of his unsuccessful presidential campaign in 2012 – represents a potentially serious threat during the run-up to 2017. (Mr Sarkozy denies any wrongdoing.)