Russian president Vladimir Putin’s geopolitical ambitions are crashing into the reality of economics and globalisation. The renewed plunge in oil prices is again combining with western sanctions imposed over Russia’s military intervention in Ukraine to strangle the Russian economy. With the rouble tumbling, threatening Russia with a second year of recession, the crisis is at least as severe as during the first big decline in oil prices in late 2014.

Beyond energy prices and sanctions lies a more fundamental problem. Russia’s economic growth model of the first decade of this century is exhausted. Then, rising oil revenues stimulated a consumer boom that brought mothballed Soviet-era capacity back into production. Decent growth is only possible now with substantial investment into new capacity and raising productivity. Sanctions, however, have compounded years of failure to modernise and reform the system of corrupt state capitalism that has developed under Mr Putin and killed off investment.

Moscow has tried to present its isolation of the past two years as an opportunity to develop its domestic industry through import institution. Even that, however, requires investment and foreign technology. In a heavily inter-connected world, autarky is not an option. Russia’s “pivot” to China, meanwhile, has proved no substitute for western financing and know-how.