When Nassim Nicholas Taleb was a teenager in Lebanon in 1975, an ethnic civil war broke out. Locals were baffled. They had thought they lived in a “stable paradise”. Once the unforeseen catastrophe began, even Taleb’s grandfather, the deputy prime minister, “did not seem to know what was going to happen any more than his driver, Mikhail”, wrote Taleb in his 2007 classic, The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable.
1975年，生活在黎巴嫩的納西姆?尼古拉斯?塔勒布(Nassim Nicholas Taleb)十幾歲時，一場民族內(nèi)戰(zhàn)爆發(fā)。當(dāng)?shù)厝藢Υ烁械嚼Щ蟆Ｋ麄冊疽詾椋麄兩钤谝粋€“安穩(wěn)的樂園”里。塔勒布在他2007年的經(jīng)典著作《黑天鵝：如何應(yīng)對不可預(yù)知的未來》(The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable)中寫道，當(dāng)這場誰也沒有料到的災(zāi)難爆發(fā)時，甚至連塔勒布的祖父、當(dāng)時的副總理“對于未來會發(fā)生什么似乎也不比他的司機(jī)米哈伊爾(Mikhail)知道的多。”