The global economy is enjoying an upswing. It is not yet clear whether it is more than cyclical. But an upswing it is. Moreover, it is not just an upswing in one part of the world economy. It is a synchronised global upswing. So what might this mean for the business of luxury?

In 2016, the global economy (measured at purchasing power parity) grew by 3.1 per cent. In its most recent World Economic Outlook, the International Monetary Fund forecast global economic growth at 3.5 per cent this year and 3.6 per cent in 2018.

IMF forecasts have hardly changed since last October (up by just 0.1 percentage point for this year and no change for 2018) or since the January update. But that is the point. The IMF thought the world economy would strengthen — and, so far as one can see, it has.