When England drops nearly all its Covid-19 restrictions on July 19, it won’t be the end of the pandemic. It may not even be the beginning of the end. But it is a foreshadowing of an ending of sorts. One day, rich countries will emerge from Covid-19 while poor countries remain stuck in it. And this isn’t just the scenario for the pandemic. It is probably also a preview of the climate crisis.

Both crises crept up on us in similar ways, notes David Fisman, a Canadian epidemiologist and member of Ontario’s Covid-19 Science Advisory Table. There is exponential growth (in infections, in carbon emissions) but initially without visible damage. Life continues happily, for weeks in the case of Covid-19, for decades with carbon. By the time we act, we’re already behind. Then each country works out almost entirely by itself what to do. Should it close schools, build wind farms? Global problems require global co-operation, but “global government” has become a political swear word like “foreign aid” or “technocracy”.

Expert advice bounces off harried, ignorant national leaders who worry about today’s headlines. Meanwhile, disinformation narratives — “It’s just a flu!”, “The climate’s always changing!” — continue to ensnare a large minority even as the crisis hits. Quite a few people are now willing to lay down their lives in the culture war: in some rich countries, deaths from Covid-19 have become concentrated among unjabbed anti-vaxxers.